Okay, well, I tried getting help on this from someone on another forum, but they ran into a dead-end. So I'm asking for someone from here to help out now. The person who was helping me out uploaded his latest update on this mini-game here: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=N3H63VOA
If you don't have any idea about what the Shell Game is, check out 0:30~0:49 of this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E28CKkIrdqs.
I'm not really looking for this mini-game to be entirely realistic. I'm pretty much just looking for it to be set up like how it is in the Suikoden vid. 'Cause, really, this is just a "one-time" mini-game for a festival in my game; it's only gonna be used for a single in-game day. It's not gonna be around forever like in Chrono Trigger, so I don't need something overly-complex. I don't want the mini-game to be -so- easy(or exploitable), that you're able to win a ton of money so soon, but I also don't want it to be so hard where it's pretty much impossible to win. I'm looking for something in between, if possible.
Thanks to anyone who's willing to help!