Microsoft Surface, Will it kill the i-pad? Options

[Licentia Per Ori...]

So unless you have been hiding under a rock for the last couple of months you will know that Microsoft are planning to jump into the tablet space.

This is currently dominated by Apple.
Will Microsoft take apples crown?

many people are of the opinion that it's going to give apple a serious kicking, and will migrate more people to the microsoft eco-system, resulting in lower future sales of i-phones and i-pods to boot.

Personally i think it will do more, It has the capabilities to dominate the tablet market.

my reasoning is that.
1. It works at work.
I pad is great and that, but if you work in an office chances are you use windows there. You will use MS office,
The i-pad does not work well with Windows, The surface will be designed to work with it seamlessly.

2. It out specs the i-pad.
Microsoft are releasing two versions with the pro version packing an Ivy bridge i5!
It's a serious but of kit.

3. the keyboard.
Yea it's a tablet, but putting the keyboard on it.
(and crucially giving it away for free)
make the windows tablet a true contender for laptop replacement.
Even the biggest apple fan-boi out there will admit that the i-pad is good for consuming content (watching and reading things)
but is completely crap when it comes to creating content (like forum posts)

So what are your thoughts?
are Microsoft going to dominate in the hand-held market?
the i-phone 5 is launching, and no one is excited about it.
But the new Nokia phones are far more exciting,
and will having your PC, Tablet, Phone and Games console all operate on a single integrated eco system attract customers to Microsoft?

[Licentia Per Ori...]

Well Some interesting Market information there, But I am not sure it is entirely relevant.
The markets reflect what the situation of a company is now / value, and of course an idea of the value in the future.

I don't think the markets are a very good indicator of future success if i am honest.

Personally, I think Apple is existing on borrowed time at the moment, and If I owned shares I would get ready to sell them.

The reason i think Apple is going to find itself in some seriously hot water is as follows.

1. Innovation
They don't do any. Apple spend almost nothing on R&D compared to other tech companies. The i-macs, I-pods and I-phone were all very revolutionary. but that's pretty much it.
The tech that it is releasing is behind the curve, the i-phone 5 for example doesn't pack as much power as the Samsung Galaxy 3, and the S4 is already on the horizon.

2. People and technology
The current belief held by many is that "apple is easy to use and simply works" and you know what, that's true.
But it's not unique to apple.
I think another thing is that not too long ago, "ignorance of tech was a status symbol".
"Oh i don't understand technology", or "oh i'm not really into technology so i just got an apple."
But this core market is starting to wane. Already the Apple eco system no longer has dominant market share in the smart phone market.
Whats more being "tech savvy" is now being considered more cool than it was before.
Certainly more cool than having no clue.

3. The glow will wear off.
There is only so long you can overcharge for a lesser product, Apple has an amazing marketing dept. And this is their strength. Apple sales are almost exclusively dependent on the apple marketing and PR team.
And when you look at some the award winning material they have produced

you can see why they have been so successful.
It starts with apple being some kind of freedom fighter against the uniform / monopoly etc. of Windows / IBM
(you could, and people have written entire essays/dissertations on that one advert)

Mac then became a lifestyle brand.
Had it's aspirations in all the right places,

Again, it was a massive win. Apple = cool, PC = looser/geek
except geeks are cool now.

what is the big message apple is pushing now?
honestly i don't see one, It seems that apple is concentrating on selling to it's existing customers,
Also relying on being an aspirational brand.

But this is far from sustainable in the long run.
And with a marketing machine out of ideas from apple.
Not to mention the PR disaster that is the multiple lawsuits apple are filing
(which goes completely against the ethos from the 1984 advert,
If anything the roles have revered, they are now the large monopoly who are sending heavies after any trespasser)
it's certainly not a case of certain seas ahead for apple.

That's not to say that they can't come out swinging and winning,
But if they are faced with a serious marketing pr salvo from a cash rich giant like Microsoft
It may be the moment that turns the tide.

[X-M-O]

Well Some interesting Market information there, But I am not sure it is entirely relevant.
The markets reflect what the situation of a company is now / value, and of course an idea of the value in the future.

The market is entirely relevant and yes it has been used for years to determine the past value, current value, and projected future value of many companies. The simple fact that people don't understand how pertinent it is to the success of a business is actually quite typical of the public.
Without its market success a publicly owned company cannot grow. Investment in companies, privately or publicly, allows companies to do things that they otherwise would not be able to do.
Apple is one of the largest companies in the world and this is reflected in its stock, whilst the investment in its stock is also one of the reasons it has continued to be successful. (Its sales are great, but a company that large cannot grow on sales alone, but because it has good sales investors trust in the company enough to invest more and more in it, as is represented in the stock price.)

I don't think the markets are a very good indicator of future success if i am honest.
But if they are faced with a serious marketing pr salvo from a cash rich giant like Microsoft
It may be the moment that turns the tide.

The markets are the primary source for understanding the current and future success of a company, and for determining the strength of the economy as a whole. Any good economist will tell you that, as there is very little data outside the market that can be used to determine a company's projected success. (You certainly aren't going to trust the company to tell you that, as they are biased. The market is not biased in this way.)
I understand your opinion of the market, however the stock market is indeed a great deal more important to determining a company's future success than even a company's quarterly or yearly sales reports.

Microsoft as a company has far less financial value and far less buying power than Apple. And just like any public relations activity, those with the most money tend to do better.
MSFT's Market Capitalisation is $261.64 Billion.
APPL's Market Capitalisation is $655.98 Billion.
Nearly 3 times the money, and that's its market capitalisation (which does not include total sales or company assets - of which, we know already that APPL is doing better in the sales department).
Here is a quote from Forbes' magazine:
"One Apple product, something that didn't exist five years ago, has higher sales than everything Microsoft has to offer. More than Windows, Office, Xbox, Bing, Windows Phone, and every other product that Microsoft has created since 1975. In the quarter ended March 31, 2012, iPhone had sales of $22.7 billion; Microsoft Corporation, $17.4 billion."

Simple facts, not opinion. So I don't want you to think that I'm in love with APPL or anything, because that's simply not true. I dislike APPL quite a bit, though not as much as MSFT, at any rate these are facts that are available to the public and are from official sources.

Marketing/PR is not enough to bring MSFT to APPL's level, in sales or in its market capitalisation. And the relevance in its success is related to how the market reacts to news/products/sales MSFT releases publicly.
If you find MSFT reaching $40 in this next month, then it is somewhat possible for MSFT to become a real competitor with APPL.
(Note that it is at $31 and that it hasn't touched $40 since mid-2000 and has sat at an average of $~30 since then.)
If the market doesn't move on MSFT, then it simply isn't going to be as successful as APPL.